APR Seminar: Andrew Gelman (Columbia University)
March 30, 2017 | 1:10pm - 2:10pm
APR Seminar: Andrew Gelman (Columbia University)Mudd Hall 303
Title: Probability and Statistics in the Study of Voting and Public Opinion
Abstract: Elections have both uncertainty and variation and hence represent a natural application of probability theory. In addition, opinion polling is a classic statistics problem and is featured in just about every course on the topic. But many common intuitions about probability, statistics, and voting are flawed. Some examples of widely-held but erroneous beliefs: votes should be modeled by the binomial distribution; sampling distributions and standard errors only make sense under random sampling; poll averaging is a simple problem in numerical analysis; survey sampling is a long-settled and boring area of statistics. In this talk, we discuss some challenging problems in probability and statistics that arise from the study of opinion and elections.